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India Election Results—Continuity, with Some Welcome Surprises

India Election Results—Continuity, with Some Welcome Surprises

COMMENTARY

Jun 5, 2024

Newspapers displayed at a roadside stall following the results of India's general election, in Ahmedabad, India, June 5, 2024, photo by Amit Dave/Reuters

Newspapers displayed at a roadside stall following the results of India’s general election, in Ahmedabad, India, June 5, 2024

In the recent India election, the ruling party performed worse than generally expected, losing its majority for the first time since 2014. Still, it is likely to return to power with enough seats among its alliance partner to earn a majority. While this sounds like a recipe for political instability, it need not be so.

The party’s seats are forecast to be 240 out of 543 seats, and with allies, 290 seats. The allies include some parties that have changed loyalties over the years, particularly the Telegu Desam Party (TDP) with 16 seats and the Janata Dal United (JDU) with 14 seats. This will likely force the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to moderate its stance on some core issues on which the TDP and JDU might disagree with the BJP.

The two smaller parties have a good record on civic freedoms, particularly on minority rights and the freedom of the press and the judiciary. Both parties are too state-focused to pose any challenge to the BJP on national or foreign policy issues. Both are pro-business parties. The result ideally would be that the BJP focuses its public policies more on poverty removal and the economy, and on international relations than on civic issues.

The BJP would be a better organization if it would focus on poverty removal and the economy.

 

The inability to retain his party’s majority in Parliament could, however, impact Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hold within the BJP. Over the past decade, he has come to dominate the BJP in the overwhelming way that only Indira Gandhi did in the Congress Party in the 1970s. The BJP’s campaign for the 2024 election was built around the theme that its promises had “Modi’s guarantee.” The party’s weak performance this time around could embolden Modi’s detractors, particularly the BJP’s mentor organization, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (National Volunteer Corps), which has long been worried by Modi’s mindshare of Hindu Nationalist ideology.

Again, while this sounds like a recipe for political instability, it need not be so, and should be welcomed. The BJP would be a better organization if it would focus on poverty removal and the economy.

The election also saw the return of the Congress Party as a credible national alternative. Despite its problem of control by a single family, the Gandhis, it has emerged from the elections with a reputation as a dedicated consensus builder, middle-of-the-road on balancing the welfare needs of a still poor country with the need to build a modern industrial society, and a strong proponent of human and civil society rights.

The mammoth seven-phase Indian elections that were held over a six-week period were uniquely Indian in scale and well-run and fair. According to the Election Commission of India, turnout was unchanged from prior national elections at about two-thirds of registered voters. Out of 969 million registered voters, 642 million persons voted (by all accounts, just once each) of whom 312 million were women. The security and efficiency of the process was ensured by the use of electronic voting machines and the deployment of 15 million security and polling personnel spread out over 68,000 teams.

The most welcome surprise of the election was that the voice of the people could be heard so freely.

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The most welcome surprise of the election was that the voice of the people could be heard so freely. As many voters on the campaign trail seemed to freely disagree with interviewers on whether the government had been good for them as those on the other side. The opposition parties, handicapped for lack of funds, also deserve credit for so effectively presenting the voices of dissent. A wide range of opinions and many well-investigated reports were presented on independent YouTube channels.

Whether this freedom will continue could depend greatly on the attitude of the coalition that will be in power. But, perhaps, the voters have tasted freedom anew and will not stand for anything less.


Rafiq Dossani is a senior economist at RAND, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institution, and a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School.

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