After cooperating with Israel, what’s the next US phase in the struggle against Iran?
Eldad Shavit, Chuck Freilich 14/04/2024 INSS
The conduct of the United States preceding and during Iran’s attack once again proved the Biden administration’s unwavering commitment to Israel’s security. Despite US anger that Israel did not inform them of its plans for the assassination in Damascus, the US coordinated with Israel and the regional states, reinforced Israel’s forces, and participated extensively in the interception efforts.
The White House’s announcement summarizing the events of Iran’s attack went beyond praising the air defense capabilities that “thwarted most of the attack” and emphasized that the president will coordinate with the G7 leaders during the day a “unified diplomatic response.” Although President Biden has not mentioned any further response, the wording of the message and American leaks make it clear that he has communicated to Prime Minister Netanyahu that the United States would oppose an Israeli counterattack. The administration’s view is that successful deterrence and the “diplomatic response” are sufficient at least for the time being. Biden aims to portray the developments as a joint effort by Israel, the United States, and the West against Iran, which was successful and conveyed the message of a western and regional action. Furthermore, according to Biden, the success of the interception and proof of effective regional cooperation contributes to strengthening deterrence against Iran.
By emphasizing that the Iranian move failed due to successful interception, the administration is also addressing its critics who claim that the United States failed to deter Iran from taking action despite President Biden’s firm statement, “Don’t.” It’s worth noting that although the situation with Iran diverts attention from the complex reality in the Gaza Strip, the US administration will likely use the success of a coordinated move with the region as a lever to advance its vision for “the day after the war” as both a strategic goal and the most effective response to Iran.
In the coming days, the administration is expected to use the events to pursue a broad diplomatic effort against Iran, both to demonstrate the cost of Iran’s actions and to influence Israel in terms of its response. The administration may also seek to leverage the pressure on Iran in the nuclear field. Regardless, these developments have proven the strategic importance of cooperation between Israel and the United States. This cooperation must also continue during the decision-making process regarding an Israeli military response to Iran. This is especially important considering that Israel will likely need the United States to promote a diplomatic effort against Iran, particularly if the ongoing exchange of fire leads to further deterioration, including an expansion of Hezbollah’s activities.